ArmInfo. In Armenia's foreign trade, the EU's share in January-September 2026 increased to 17.9% (from 12.4% a year ago), while the EAEU's decreased to 28.8% (from 35.8% a year ago), against 19% and 33%, respectively, in 2021. However, despite the decline, Russia retains its lead in terms of volume (including exports and imports), while Germany ranks among the top five EU countries (including imports, with strong growth).
According to data from the RA Statistics Committee, foreign trade turnover with the EU accelerated year-on-year from 6.1% to 49.1%, reaching $2.7 billion, while with the EAEU, it slowed from 49.2% to 17.4%, reaching $4.3 billion. Moreover, among the EAEU countries, only Russia recorded a decline in volume, while most EU countries chose to increase their volumes – these include Germany, Bulgaria, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Poland, Spain, Austria, Lithuania, the Czech Republic, Cyprus, Slovakia, Greece, Sweden, and Portugal – many of them significantly.
In In particular, the share of the EAEU in exports decreased from 39.8% to 38.6% (with an insignificant change in the dominant share of the Russian Federation - from 37.1% to 35.7%), while the share of the EU increased from 8.4% to 13.9%. At the same time, the share of the EAEU in imports decreased from 33.3% to 23.6% (due to a decrease in the dominant share of the Russian Federation - 32.5% to 22.1%), and the share of the EU increased from 14.8% to 20.1%. The share coverage of the remaining countries representing the leading five changed as follows: China increased its share both in exports from 8.8% to 17.4%, and in imports - from 15.6% to 17.1%; The UAE significantly reduced its share in exports from 23.4% to 8.1% and further reduced its meager share in imports from 0.7% to 0.4%; Germany maintained its share in exports at 1.5%, while increasing its share in imports from 2.9% to 3.7%; Bulgaria increased its share in exports more noticeably from 0.7% to 3.8% than in imports - from 0.2% to 0.8%; the USA continues to increase its share in imports from 2.5% to 3.3%, having slightly reduced its share in exports from 0.7% to 0.6%; Iraq increased its share in exports from 4.4% to 4.9% with a meager 0.04% in imports; Iran slightly reduced its share of imports from 5.4% to 5.3%, while also modestly increasing its share of exports from 1.2% to 1.4%.
The top five exporters are Russia, China, the UAE, Iraq, and Bulgaria, with a combined volume of over $3.6 billion (or 69.9% of the total). The top five importers are Russia, China, Iran, Germany, and the United States, with a combined volume of over $5 billion (or 51.6% of the total). Both exports and imports are declining for Russia and the UAE. For China, the recovery from a recession in exports to significant growth is accompanied by a subtle acceleration in double-digit import growth. For Germany, the emerging decline in exports is accompanied by a recovery from recession to strong import growth. For the United States, the decline in exports is accelerating, while imports are recovering from recession to strong double-digit growth. For Bulgaria, both exports and imports have recovered from recession, jumping significantly. In Iraq, a sharp slowdown in export growth is accompanied by a continued, several-fold increase in imports. In Iran, exports are growing while import growth is slowing.
The share of Armenia's top five trading partners—Russia, China, Iran, the UAE, and Germany—decreased in January-September 2026 to a combined 54% of total foreign trade turnover (from 62.8% or $9.1 billion in January-September 2025), dropping to $8.1 billion. Two of them, Russia and the UAE, continued to decline by 19.4% and 66.7%, respectively (compared to 50.5% and 70.2% last year). Meanwhile, foreign trade volumes with China and Germany grew by 36.2% and 28.1% (from a decline of 9.2% and 2.2% a year ago), while growth with Iran accelerated slightly from 6.7% to 6.9%.
Note that among the EAEU countries, foreign trade turnover between Armenia and Kyrgyzstan has increased significantly, with impressive growth observed in both imports and exports. Armenia's growth in foreign trade with Belarus and Kazakhstan is supported by a significant increase in imports from these countries. Armenia's foreign trade with the CIS countries has significantly increased with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, with both exports and imports increasing with Turkmenistan, and exports increasing with Uzbekistan. Strong growth in foreign trade has also been observed between Armenia and Ukraine, driven by a significant jump in exports and a noticeable increase in imports.
Overall, Armenia's foreign trade turnover for January-September 2026 reached $14.95 billion, with the year-on-year trend returning to 2.7% growth from a significant 39.3% decline. In particular, imports improved, returning to 9.5% growth from a 33.4% decline, and the decline in exports slowed significantly from 46.8% to 8%, reaching $9.79 billion and $5.16 billion, respectively.
It should be noted that, according to the updated September 2026 data, According to the forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, the dynamics of exports and imports, after accelerating the decline in 2025 from 11-3.2% to 30.1-27.2%, will remain in a double-digit decline in 2026 at 29.9-37.6% (for exports) and 25.8-30.2% (for imports), while the previous June forecast expected a noticeable slowdown in the decline both for exports to 5.9-5.1% and for imports to 4.2-5.8%. Now the Central Bank expects the resumption of growth in foreign trade in 2027, and the rates will be more noticeable - 5.5-7.7% (for exports) and 1.8-2% (for imports), than previously forecasted - 2.6-4.3% (for exports) and 1.1-0.8% (for imports). In its June forecast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) pointed to a modest improvement in Armenia's export and import dynamics in 2026, expecting a recovery from a double-digit decline to a very weak and almost flat growth of 0.9-0.7% (versus the previously projected 2.2-2.1%). However, the IMF significantly improved its forecast for export and import growth in 2027, to 5.5-6.3% (versus the previously projected 3.4-3.7%). Three months later, in October, the IMF updated its forecast but did not provide expectations for Armenia's export and import growth in 2026. However, it slightly improved the projected GDP growth and expected a more significant inflation overshooting of the target, while expecting a less noticeable decline in the current account deficit to GDP ratio from 8.7% to 8.2%. In its July forecast, the World Bank did not indicate what the dynamics of Armenia's foreign trade might be in 2026-2028, but noted that the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP, after a noticeable increase in 2025 from 4.6% to 7.2%, will gradually decrease - to 5.6% in 2026, to 5.2% in 2027 and to 4.8% in 2028, which will be facilitated by the normalization of trade flows and the growth of export potential.
