ArmInfo. According to a sensitivity analysis conducted by the Central Bank of Armenia, a 10% increase in gas prices would increase inflation in the country by 0.8%, but it is still unclear whether the relationship would be linear. Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan announced this at a press conference on November 3, explaining that this would directly and indirectly affect the consumer basket: directly through changes in gas prices, and indirectly through the gas component in electricity.
"We do not have a scenario that provides for clear parameters—the range of gas price changes, the directions of influence, and the instruments of interaction. Unfortunately, we still do not have such information, so I consider developing a scenario premature. But as I already noted, we conducted a sensitivity analysis, calculating, for example, what would happen if gas prices increased by 10%. This will lead to a 0.6% increase in inflation, plus a 0.1-0.2% increase from higher prices for goods that use gas. I have already voiced our expert assessment in terms of sensitivity. We will see how the situation develops," the head of the Central Bank explained.
He added: "When the situation becomes clearer and it becomes clear what steps the Russian Federation will take (whether or not to change gas prices, and by how much), and the Armenian authorities' position on this matter becomes clear, then we will incorporate these factors into our calculation models and determine what course of action the Central Bank should take."
It should be noted that annual inflation in September 2026 already exceeds the target threshold, reaching 4.3%, against the target of 3% (with an acceptable range of fluctuations of +/- 1 percentage point), against the inflation rate of 3.7% in September 2025. Compared to September 2024, the Central Bank's baseline annual inflation rate for September was 4.7%, compared to 3.5% a year earlier in the same period. Moreover, the main increase is due to rising food prices and the continuing rise in the cost of services. Citing the information currently available to the Central Bank, Galstyan noted that people visiting Armenia this year are staying here longer, which was not the case last year: "It can be concluded that most of them are either forming economic ties with Armenia or, having already formed them, intend to stay here for a longer period. And we see that in recent months the number of Russian citizens crossing the border has grown significantly, and this leads us to the assumption that there is a huge number of non-residents from Russia and other countries in Armenia who are creating demand for our goods and services." Let us recall that in the report published in October of this year, In a joint report by members of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council from Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan, it was noted that the consequences for Armenia of leaving the EAEU would be discussed. In particular, regarding the price of gas, it was stated that it could jump by 69% if the country's participation in the EAEU is suspended. The report states: "The scenario assessment of gas imports by the Republic of Armenia from the EAEU member states is based on a price of $300 per 1,000 cubic meters while maintaining the physical volume of supplies. Compared to the current base price of $177.5 per 1,000 cubic meters, the price increase will be approximately 69%." In December of this year, at a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council, the heads of state of this union are expected to discuss a special report on the possible consequences of suspending Armenia's membership in the EAEU.
