ArmInfo. Armenia's withdrawal from the EAEU could lead to the cessation of banking and financial intermediation, and such a scenario would deal a much stronger blow to the economy than the 4.6% reduction, as this sector is the main driver of economic growth. Economist Aghasi Tavadyan wrote this on his Facebook page.
According to him, on October 20, four EAEU member states (Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan) published a 72-page report stating that if Armenia leaves the union, its GDP will decline by 15.6%, or $4.6 billion, gas prices will increase by 69%, and remittance inflows will be halved. A day later, the Armenian Minister of Economy responded with his own estimate of the maximum GDP decline: 0.61%. However, neither party presented the mathematical model underlying these calculations.
"The methodology we used is simple and replicable. Summarizing the trade indicators included in the report, the losses in the real sector amount to ?4.6%, or approximately $1.3 billion. The bulk of the ?15.6% decline mentioned in the report was the result of a methodological deviation, since gross re-exports and the reduction in import volumes were accounted for as domestic production. However, neither the government's statements nor the report mention the financial system and banking intermediation that Armenia serves. Leaving the EAEU could lead to the cessation of precisely this financial intermediation, and such a scenario would deal a much stronger blow to the economy than ?4.6%, as this sector is the main driver of economic growth," Tavadyan noted. He added that in the first seven months of 2026, $4.5 billion entered Armenia through the banking system, of which only $0.8 billion were traditional transfers, while the remaining $3.7 billion were commercial in nature, which is almost ten times more than in 2019. "The main problem is not the loss of its status as a commodity market, but the loss of its status as a financial intermediary. What will happen if these flows cease?" asked Aghasi Tavadyan.
A report by four EAEU countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia), presented in October 2026, examines the possible consequences of suspending Armenia's participation in the Eurasian Economic Union amid its course toward rapprochement with the European Union.
The authors of the report consider Armenia's steps toward integration with the EU incompatible with its continued participation in the EAEU. The document states that the union countries have the right to temporarily suspend Yerevan's participation in the union even before holding an internal referendum on the choice between the EAEU and the EU. At the same time, the report provides an assessment of the economic consequences for Armenia in the event of suspension of membership. In particular, the GDP could fall by 15.6%, gas prices could rise by 69%, which would lead to losses of $657.7 million, and remittances from Russia could decrease by more than half (to $1.8 billion). At the same time, there will be a decrease in total trade turnover with the EAEU to $3.55 billion (given that in 2025, Armenia's trade turnover with the union countries was $7.99 billion, or 37.8% of all foreign trade). Despite all this, inflation could rise to 14.9 percent. Additional risks include increased restrictions by the Russian Federation on imports of Armenian agricultural products, fish, and dairy products.
