The global economy will grow by 2.6% in 2026, according to the World Bank forecast

ArmInfo.The World Bank (WB) expects global economic growth to reach 2.6% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, according to its December Global Economic Prospects report. In June 2025, the bank projected GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.6% the following year.

"The global economy is showing greater resilience than expected, despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Growth will remain broadly stable over the next two years," the report notes.

It warns that "if forecasts are met, the 2020s will be the decade of weakest global economic growth since the 1960s." The sluggish pace of recovery is widening the gap in living standards across the world: at the end of 2025, per capita income in almost all developed countries exceeded 2019 levels, but in about a quarter of developing countries, per capita income has declined. The World Bank forecasts US economic growth in 2026 and 2027 at 1.6%. Previously, expectations for the current year were 1.4%.

China's GDP growth estimate was revised up to 4.4% this year from 4%, and to 4.2% next year from 3.9%.

The eurozone economy is expected to expand by 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. Previously, growth of 0.8% and 1% was projected.

According to the bank, global GDP increased by 2.7% last year, compared to the previous forecast of 2.3%. "In 2025, growth was supported by a surge in trade ahead of policy shifts and the rapid restructuring of global supply chains. This stimulus is expected to fade in 2026 due to a decline in trade and domestic demand," the bank's experts predict.

However, according to the report, easing global financing conditions and expansionary fiscal policies in several major economies should help mitigate the slowdown.

Global inflation is projected to decline to 2.6% in 2026, reflecting greater slack in labor markets and lower energy prices. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2027 amid an adjustment in trade flows and reduced policy uncertainty. "With each passing year, the global economy becomes less able to sustain growth and appears more resilient to political uncertainty," noted Indermit Gill, Chief Economist at the World Bank Group. "In the coming years, the global economy will grow more slowly than during the volatile 1990s, with public and private debt reaching record levels. To avoid stagnation and unemployment, governments in emerging market and advanced economies must actively liberalize private investment and trade, curb public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education."

Growth in developing economies is expected to slow to 4% in 2026, down from 4.2% last year, before accelerating to 4.1% in 2027, amid easing trade tensions, stabilizing commodity prices, improving financial conditions, and stronger investment flows. (finmarket)