Armenia`s foreign trade turnover 42% down 

ArmInfo.  In Armenia's foreign trade, transactions with precious metals and stones have been declining since 2025, amounting to 24% ($2.7 billion) in total volume  over 7 months against 59.4% ($11.7 billion) a year ago. This category  of goods played a decisive role in the deterioration of the annual  dynamics of the country's foreign trade turnover, which fell from a  significant 95% growth to a significant 42% decline. Thus, according  to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, in  January-July 2025, the share of imports and exports of precious  metals and stones in total trade fell to 18.1% and 33.2%,  respectively, while in the same period last year it was 52% and 69%.  In terms of volume, during the reporting period, these products were  imported for $1.3 billion and exported for $1.5 billion: over the  year, their imports fell by 77.5%, and exports - by 75.7%.

For comparison, we note that a sharp increase in this article and its  emergence as a dominant in Armenia's foreign trade began to be  observed already in 2022, accelerating more and more significantly in  the following two years. In particular, in 2022, precious  metals/stones and products made from them were exported for $989.3  million (with an annual growth of 3 times), and imported for $690.8  million (with an annual growth of 2.8 times).

Further in 2023, the significant growth in exports and imports of  precious metals/stones and products made from them not only  continued, but also accelerated to 3.2-3.3 times, reaching export  volumes of up to $3.2 billion and imports of up to $2.7 billion. This  trend continued in 2024, and despite some slowdown in growth, the  pace remained impressive (2.5-2.7 times), further increasing export  and import volumes to $8 billion and $7.4 billion, respectively.

However, starting in 2025, the volumes of transactions with precious  metals/stones began to decline, and at an impressive pace, which  worsened the annual dynamics of export and import volumes from  impressive growth to a significant decline (from growth by 7.9-9.1  times in January-July 2024 to a decline of 75.7-77.5% in January-July  2025).

At the same time, production volumes in the jewelry industry continue  to look very modest: for 2022 - 42 billion drams (an increase of  51.8%), for 2023 - 230.9 billion drams (a jump of 4.9 times), for  2024 - 53.2 billion drams or $ 135.4 million (a decline of 32.2%).  The downward dynamics continued in 2025, as evidenced by the decline  in volumes in January-July by 62.5% per annum (to 16.2 billion drams  or $ 41.5 million), and a year ago a strong slowdown in growth rates  was already visible from 58.8% to a meager 1.2% with a volume of 38.2  billion drams ($ 96.6 million).

According to experts, the very fact that three years ago precious  metals and stones began to significantly dominate exports and  imports, with low production volumes in the jewelry industry, already  indicated a sharp increase in re-exports and re-imports, which,  judging by the data for 2024, were still taking place.

However, since 2025, it has become impossible to conduct such  transactions in the previous volume due to the settlement of the  issue of customs duties on jewelry products within the EAEU. It is  known that since 2020, the Russian Federation has more than three  times submitted a proposal to the EEC to zero out the import customs  value for colored precious stones and small-sized diamonds up to 0.2  carats. But the issue was never resolved - Armenia blocked the  zeroing of duties. Due to the import customs duty on precious stones,  it was much more profitable to import finished jewelry products from  third countries that are not members of the EAEU than to produce them  on the territory of the union. The import duty rate on finished  jewelry is lower than the rates on precious stones (10-15%) for its  production. However, since 2025, this "high-yield" effect has been  lost. Russia has zeroed out duties on the import of jewelry from the  UAE.

The real volumes of re-export and re-import of precious metals and  stones are evidenced by the customs data of Armenia for 2024,  according to which diamonds and gold imported mainly from Russia (73%  and 99.4%, respectively) were exported mainly to the UAE (74.8%  diamonds and 70.2% gold) and Hong Kong (16.4% diamonds and 20.2%  gold). Almost the same picture emerged at the end of 2023, but then  46.7% of diamonds and 99.2% of gold came from Russia, which were also  exported to the UAE (84.6% of diamonds and 71.4% of gold) and Hong  Kong (2.7% of diamonds and 25.4% of gold).  Customs data is usually  published semi-annually and annually, and, judging by the speed of  their preparation, will be posted on the department's website 6-7  months after the reporting period, i.e. for the first half of 2025,  at best, they will appear in December, and for the whole of 2025 - in  August 2026.

According to statistics, despite a significant drop in transactions  with precious metals and stones, this article still retains its  leadership in exports, but has lost its primacy in imports.  It is  worth noting that the previously traditionally dominant export and  import items - mineral products and finished food products, having  yielded their positions to precious metals, machinery, equipment and  mechanisms, still cannot regain their leadership in foreign trade.  But the duration of the decline in transactions with precious metals  and stones allows us to assume that in the short term, mineral  products and finished food products will restore their positions.

In particular, in terms of export and import of mineral products,  after a slowdown in growth rates in 2022 and a decline of 13.6-6.9%  in 2023, both exports (by 15.1%) and imports (by 0.3%) were able to  grow in 2024. Then, in January-July 2025, imports increased by 4% and  exports by 5.9%, amounting to $645.9 million and $625.4 million,  respectively, which, compared to the dynamics of a year ago,  indicates an improvement in the import trend (with an exit from the  4% decline) and a slowdown in export growth (from 18%). This shifted  mineral products in exports to 4th position (now behind not only  precious metals and stones, but also machinery/equipment and finished  food products). In imports, mineral products also ranked 4th, with a  small difference in volume, yielding 3rd position to "land, air and  water transport", and being much further from the leading "machinery,  equipment and mechanisms" and "precious metals and stones" that moved  to 2nd position.

Exports of machinery, equipment and mechanisms for January-July 2025  reached $683.2 million, and imports - $1.5 billion. The annual  dynamics of these indicators are downward: exports slowed in decline  from 5.4% to 3.1%, and imports decreased by 0.4% (against 4.1% growth  a year ago). Machinery, equipment and mechanisms took the lead in  imports, since the previously leading precious metals/stones dropped  significantly in volume, and in exports they lingered in 2nd  position, less and less noticeably yielding in volume to the still  leading precious metals/stones.

Exports and imports of finished food products improved in annual  dynamics, showing high double-digit growth of 30.6% and 21.1%,  respectively, while a year ago there was a decline in exports by 2.2%  and a relatively modest growth in imports by 10.7%. The volume of  exports of finished food products in January-July 2025 reached $650.9  million (3rd position), respectively, and imports - $454.6 million  (5th position).

In total, the volume of exports for January-July 2025 exceeded $4.4  billion, with a reversal of the annual dynamics from growth by 2.2  times to a 49.6% decline, and the volume of imports amounted to $6.99  billion, also with a deterioration in the annual dynamics from 79.1%  growth to 35.8% decline. As a result, the volume of foreign trade  turnover fell by 42% year-on-year (against 95% growth a year ago),  amounting to $11.4 billion in January-July 2025. Moreover, in the  country breakdown, a strong deterioration in the annual dynamics of  foreign trade turnover is recorded for the leading countries:  Russia  (from 2.4-fold growth to a 52.1% decline), the UAE (from 7.3-fold  growth to a 67.9% decline) and China (from 41.6% growth to a 12.5%  decline). In particular, in the direction of the Russian Federation,  both imports (by 63.9%) and exports (by 5.6%) fell, in the direction  of the UAE, a 68.7% decline in exports was accompanied by an import  growth of 34.3%, and in the direction of China, a 53.4% decline in  exports was accompanied by an import growth of 24.2%.

It is noteworthy that the foreign trade turnover between Armenia and  the EU reached 9.6% growth (from 21.4% decline a year ago), reaching  $1.4 billion in January-July 2025. This was due to the improvement in  the annual dynamics of imports from 19.4% decline to 11.5% growth and  the same reversal in the export trend from 26.3% decline to 4.5%  growth, the volumes of which amounted to $1.05 billion and $346.7  million, respectively. 

The EU's share in the total volume of foreign trade increased over  the year from 6.5% to 12.2%, in particular in exports - from 3.8% to  7.8% and in imports from 8.7% to 15%. At the same time, the foreign  trade turnover between Armenia and the EAEU worsened in annual  dynamics from a 2.3-fold growth to a 51% decline, amounting to $4.1  billion in January-July 2025, which was the result of a significant  drop in imports by 63.4% (against a 4.4-fold growth a year ago) and  exports that lingered in decline with a slowdown from 21.2% to 5%,  the volumes of which amounted to $2.4 billion and $1.7 billion,  respectively. 

The share of the EAEU in the total volume of foreign trade decreased  over the year from 43.1% to 36.4%, and the decline in the share of  imports from 61.4% to 35% was accompanied by an increase in the share  of exports from 20.4% to 38.5%. It should be noted that both the  Central Bank of Armenia and the IMF forecast a decline in both  exports and imports for 2025, but the rates they predict differ  greatly. 

Thus, according to the Central Bank's expectations (June forecast),  after almost equal growth in exports and imports in 2024 by  35.6-31.4%, in 2025 exports will decrease by 32.3-36.4% and imports  by 29-34.2%, with growth in 2026 of both exports by 5.4-5% and  imports by 4.7-3.1%. In its April forecast for 2025, the IMF  predicted a more modest decline in Armenia's foreign trade: exports  by 10.4% and imports by 5.4%. The World Bank has not yet updated its  forecast for Armenia's foreign trade in 2025, but in early November  it already predicted a strong slowdown in growth of both exports to  5.6% and imports to 7%.