In July, Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.4% driven by  higher prices for food and services

ArmInfo. In July 2025, the consumer market in Armenia experienced inflation of 3.4%, a significant increase from the  1.4%  inflation recorded in July 2024.  This rise in prices was  primarily driven  by increases in prices for  food and services. Over the first seven months of 2025, inflation  reached 0.6% (compared to last year's deflation of 1.3% in the same  period), which was also the result of higher prices for services with  slightly cheaper food and non-food products.

 According to the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia,  in July of this year alone deflation of 0.8% was recorded (compared  to the deflationary 0.4% a year earlier in the same month), driven by  a seasonal decrease in food prices by 2.4% with a 0.6% increase in  services. In Yerevan, consumer prices fell by 0.8% in July, compared  to a 0.4% decline in July 2024. Over the 7 months of this year, minor  inflation was mainly provoked by a 2.6% increase in services prices  with a decrease in prices for food and non-food products by 0.2% and  0.8%, respectively, which was also noted a year earlier over 7 months  - an increase in services prices by 1.5% and a decrease in prices for  food and non-food products by 2.8% and 2.6%. In January-July 2025,  compared to the same period in 2024, inflation was recorded at 3.2%,  against a deflationary 0.3% a year earlier. Moreover, food products  rose in price by 5.1%, services increased in price by 3%, and  non-food products fell in price by 0.6%, while a year earlier, food  products fell in price by 2.7%, services rose in price by 2.8%, and  non-food products did not change in price.

 From July 2025 to July 2024,  there was an inflation rate of 3.4%.  This increase was primarily due to a rise in prices for food products  by 4.9% and services by 3.6%, with a slight increase in prices for  non-food products by 0.1%, while a year earlier in July 2024 to July  2023, lower inflation of 1.4% was recorded, provoked by a higher rise  in prices for services by 3.1% than for food products by 1%, with a  decrease in prices for non-food products by 0.5%. Among food  products, the most significant price increases year-on- year were for  trout - by 24.1%, fish and seafood - by 22%, cocoa - by 20.4%,  sunflower oil - by 16.8%, coffee - by 13.4%, butter - by 12.6%,  chocolate - by 12%, flour - by 8.4%, ice cream - by 7.1%, pork - by  7%, vegetables - by 6.1%, pasta - by 5.8%, bread - by 4.4%, and lamb  - by 4.3%. Additionally, there was an annual decrease in the price of  eggs - by 8.3%, sugar and granulated sugar - by 4.7%, cheeses - by  0.5%, poultry - by 0.2%, flour - by 0.8%, and poultry - by 0.6%.  Vegetables and fruits, having increased in price by 6.1% and 4.9%  year-on-year, saw a decrease by 21.7% and 2.4% in July alone. 

Cigarettes increased in price by 8% year-on-year, compared to a 1.7%  increase the year before. Of the alcoholic beverages, vodka increased  in price most noticeably year-on-year - by 5.5%, while wine and beer  increased in price more modestly - by 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively,  whereas a year ago wine fell in price by 1.4%, while vodka and beer  increased in price more significantly - by 10% and 3.6%,  respectively.  Bottled mineral water increased in price year-on-year  by 2.9% (compared to a 1.4% increase the year before). In the  non-food market, the annual growth of prices for jewelry accelerated  - from 8.2% to 26%, and large and small household electrical  appliances and equipment continued to grow in price - by 3.8- 5.8%  (compared to 3.1-2.2% growth a year ago). Medicines and medical  equipment began to grow in price - by 4.8-4.7% per annum, whereas a  year ago medicines increased in price by only 0.2%, and medical  equipment fell in price by 3.7%.

Furniture prices fell by 0.6% in July this year after last year's  1.9% rise. At the same time, gardening tools continued to fall in  price - by 4.2% per annum (compared to 0.4% a year ago), clothing -  by 2.3% (compared to 3.3% a year ago), and disposable household goods  - by 1.2% (compared to 5.7% a year ago).  Footwear prices began to  decrease - by 1.4% (compared to a 0.2% increase a year ago). Gasoline  and diesel fuel fell in price year-on-year (July 2025 to July 2024)  by 1.4% and 3.9%, respectively, while a year ago there was an  increase in the cost of gasoline by 10.2% and diesel fuel by 15.4%.  Over the first 7 months of 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices fell  by 4.4% and 1.1%, respectively, which was also observed last year  during the same period - gasoline prices fell by 8.8% and diesel fuel  by 6.7%. But in July alone, gasoline and diesel fuel rose in price by  3.9% and 5.2%, respectively.

As for tariffs for services, a significant increase was recorded  year-on-year in the areas of transport - by 30.6% (including 13.4%  for insurance), and comprehensive services for organizing recreation  - by 16%.  Tariffs for hairdressing and SPA salon services  accelerated in growth - from 6.2% to 11.6%, medical services - from  2.4% to 3.6%, and it is noteworthy that dental clinic services rose  in price by 5.2%, and doctor's consultations - by 7.1%. In the hotel  business, services increased in price by 4.4% (against 0.9% growth a  year ago). Tariffs for financial services slowed in growth from 1.8%  to 1.3%. July deflation of 0.8% was accompanied by an unchanged dram  exchange rate against the dollar, and over 7 months of 2025, with  inflation at 0.6%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by 3.1%.  As a comparison, we note that a year earlier, July deflation of 0.4%  was also accompanied by an unchanged dram exchange rate against the  dollar, and over 7 months of 2024, deflation of 1.3% was accompanied  by a strengthening of the dram against the dollar by 4.1%. In July  2025, compared to July 2024, with inflation at 3.4%, the dram  strengthened against the dollar by 1% - from AMD 388.1 to AMD  384.1/$1, while in July 2024, annual inflation of 1.4% and  devaluation of the dram against the dollar by 0.4% were recorded  (from AMD 386.5 /$1 in July 2023).

Note that the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts inflation in 2025  within 3.4-3.2%, compared to  1.5% in 2024. The forecast for  2026 is  expected to be within the updated target level (3%, +/- 1 p.p.) - up  to 3.2- 2.9%. Additionally, inflation in the segment of  non-exportable goods with fixed prices will increase in 2025 to  2.7-2.6% (from 2.5% in 2024) and will continue to grow in 2026 to  3.5-2.8%. The International Monetary Fund predicts that inflation in  Armenia will remain close to the target level (3%, +/- 1 p.p. - Ed.)  by the end of 2025.  Let us recall that as of 2025, the target  inflation level is set at 3% with a range of permissible deviations  of +/- 1 p.p. (compared to the previous 4%, +/- 1.5 p.p.). The RA Law  "On the State Budget of Armenia for 2025" stipulates that the Central  Bank will now base its  monetary policy decisions on this  new  inflation target (3%, +/- 1 p.p.).