In June,  Armenia`s annual inflation rate increased to 3.9%  driven  by higher prices for food  and services

ArmInfo. In Armenia's consumer market  in June 2025,  there was  a recorded inflation of 3.9% compared to June 2024,  (higher than the inflation rate of 0.8% a year ago).

This increase was driven by a rise in prices of food  products and services. In the first half of 2025, inflation was at  the level of 1.5% (compared to last year's deflation of 0.9% in the  same period), which was also a result of the rise in prices of food  products and services. According to the Statistical Committee of the  Republic of Armenia, in June of this year, there was a deflation of  1.3%  (compared to deflation of 0.9% a year earlier in the same  month), provoked by a seasonal decrease in food prices by 3.1% with a  0.7% increase in services.

 In Yerevan, consumer prices fell by 1.2% in June, against a 0.9%  decline in June 2024. In the first half of this year, the increase in  inflation was mainly provoked by a 2.2% increase in food prices and,  to a lesser extent, a 1.9% increase in services, with a 0.8% decrease  in non-food prices, while a year earlier in the first half of 2024, a  1.7% decrease in food prices was recorded, a more noticeable decrease  in non-food prices by 2.4% and an increase in service tariffs by  0.9%. In the first half of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024,  inflation was recorded at 3.1%, against a deflationary 0.6% a year  earlier. Moreover, food products rose in price by 5.2%, services  increased in price by 2.9%, and non-food products fell in price by  0.7%, while a year earlier, food products fell in price by 3.3%, and  non-food products and services rose in price by 0.1% and 2.8%,  respectively. In June 2025 to June 2024, inflation of 3.9% resulted  from an increase in prices for food products by 6.2% and services by  3.5%, with a decrease in prices for non-food products by 0.2%, while  a year earlier in June 2024 to June 2023, lower inflation of 0.8% was  recorded, provoked by an equal decrease in prices for food and  non-food products by 0.2%, with an increase in tariffs for services  by 2.7%. 

In the food market, the prices for vegetables and fruits have  increased year-on-year (June 2025 to June 2024) by 25% and 3.7%,  respectively (compared to an increase in prices for vegetables by 7%  and fruits by 6.3% the previous year). However,  in June alone, there  was a significant seasonal decrease in the price of vegetables by   23.6%, and  a slight decrease in fruit prices by  1.2%, whereas a  year ago (in June 2024) the seasonal decrease in the price of  vegetables by 21.2% was accompanied by an increase in the price of  fruits by 8%. The average weighted deflation in the food group of  vegetables and fruits was 15.14% in June of this year. Since they  make up 8.28% of the consumer basket, the impact on consumer prices  was downward by 1.25 percentage points. Among food products, the  prices of trout have also increased significantly year- on-year - by  21.8%, cocoa - 20.4%, fish and seafood - by 20%, sunflower oil - by  17.5%, chocolate - by 14.8%, coffee - by 14.3%, butter - by 14%,  flour - by 7.1%, pasta - by 5.3%, ice cream - by 5.2%, lamb and pork  - by 3.9-4.5%, bread - by 3.9%, while beef has increased more  modestly - by 1.2%, margarine - by 1.1%, rice - by 0.9%, and milk -  by 0.8%. 

At the same time, there was an annual decrease in the price of eggs -  by 6.2%, sugar and granulated sugar - by 2.8%, cheese - by 1.6%,  flour - by 0.8%, and poultry - by 0.6%. Cigarettes increased in price  by 7.4% per annum, compared to a growth of 2.3% a year earlier. Of  alcoholic beverages, vodka has increased in price most noticeably in  annual terms - by 5.4%, and wine and beer have increased in price  more modestly - by 2.1% and 1.4%, respectively, whereas a year ago  wine fell in price by 1.8%, and vodka and beer increased in price  more significantly - by 10.7% and 3.7%, respectively. Bottled mineral  water has increased in price in annual terms by 3% (compared to a  0.5% growth a year ago). In the non-food market, the annual growth of  prices for jewelry accelerated - from 6.1% to 25.2%, and large and  small household electrical appliances and equipment continued to grow  in price - by 2.9-5.2% (against 3.2-2.3% growth a year ago).  Medicines and medical equipment began to grow in price - by 4.3-4%  per annum, whereas a year ago there was a decrease in the price of  this group of goods by 1-3.4%. The annual growth of prices for  furniture slowed - from 2.2% to 0.8%. At the same time, gardening  equipment continued to fall in price - by 4.4% per annum (against  1.2% a year ago), clothing - by 2.6% (compared to 3.1% a year ago),  disposable household goods - by 1.6% (against 3.6% a year ago),  building materials - by 0.7% per annum (against 2.2% a year ago),  tableware - by 0.3% (against 0.7% a year ago). Prices for footwear  began to decrease - by 0.8% (compared to growth of 0.2% a year ago).

Gasoline and diesel fuel prices have decreased year-on-year (June  2025 to June 2024) by 7.6% and 10.9%, respectively, while a year ago  there was a jump in the cost of gasoline by 25.7% and diesel fuel by  16.5%.  In the first half of 2025, gasoline and diesel fuel prices  dropped by 8% and 5.9%, respectively, which was also observed last  year during the same period - gasoline fell by 6.3% and diesel fuel  by 4.3%. As for tariffs for services, there was a significant  increase r in transport - by 26.8% (and for insurance - by 12.2%),  comprehensive services for organizing recreation - by 14.7%,  preschool and primary education - by 12.3%, higher education - by 7%.  Rates for hairdressing and SPA services accelerated in growth - from  5.1% to 12.8%, medical services - from 2.4% to 3.2%. It is worth  noting that dental clinic services increased in price by 5.1%, and  doctor consultations - by 7.1%. In the hotel business, services only  increased in price by 1% (compared to 3.3% growth a year ago). 

Rates for financial services slowed in growth from 1.8% to 1.3%. In  June, there was a deflation of 1.3% accompanied by a revaluation of  the dram against the dollar by 0.6%. In the first half of 2025, with  inflation at 1.5%, the dram strengthened against the dollar by 3.1%.  For comparison, we note that a year earlier, the June deflation of  0.9% was accompanied by a devaluation of the dram against the dollar  by 0.1%, and in the first half of 2024, deflation of 0.9% was  accompanied by a strengthening of the dram against the dollar by  4.1%. In June 2025, compared to June 2024, with inflation of 3.9%,  there was a strengthening of the dram against the dollar by 1% - from  AMD 388.1 to AMD 384.2 / $ 1, while in June 2024, annual inflation of  0.8% and a devaluation of the dram against the dollar by 0.4% were  recorded (from AMD 386.7 / $ 1 in June 2023). 

It should be noted that the Central Bank of Armenia forecasts  inflation in 2025 to be within 3.4-3.2%, compared to the inflation  rate of 1.5% in 2024. The forecast also indicates a further approach  in 2026 to the updated target level of 3% with a range of  +/- 1  p.p., expected to be between 3.2-2.9%. Moreover, inflation in the  segment of non-exportable goods, characterized by rigid prices, is  expected to increase in 2025 to 2.7-2.6% (up from 2.5% in 2024) and  is anticipated to continue  growing in 2026 to 3.5-2.8%. According to  the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, inflation in Armenia  by the end of 2025 will remain close to the target level (3%, +/- 1  p.p. - Ed.). Recall that starting from 2025, the inflation target has  been set at 3% with a tolerance range of +/- 1 percentage point  (versus the previous 4%, +/- 1.5 percentage points).  The RA Law "On  the State Budget of Armenia for 2025" stipulates that the Central  Bank will henceforth be guided by the new inflation target (3%, +/- 1  percentage point) when making decisions on monetary policy.