Thursday, June 6 2024 12:11
Karina Melikyan

Higher-rate economic activity growth in Armenia 

Higher-rate economic activity growth in Armenia 

ArmInfo. In Armenia, the growth of economic activity in January-April 2024 accelerated to 13.2% per  annum (from 12.2% in the same period of 2023). But unlike last year, now the driver of growth is not only the trade sector, but also the industrial sector. As evidenced by the final data of the RA Statistical Committee, this was accompanied by continued high growth rates of exports and imports.

Judging by the industrial sector data indicated in the final  statistical report, the high growth in industrial production no  longer comes from the jewelry industry, which in previous periods  showed exponential growth, but is now in decline. In particular, the  high growth of the industrial sector is now supported to a greater  extent by the production of basic metals, electrical equipment, and  to a slightly lesser extent by the production of fabricated metal  products, furniture, wood processing, tanning and metallurgical  industries.  Moreover, it is the production of basic metals that now  leads in the industrial sector not only in terms of impressive growth  rates at several times, but also in volume, whereas previously the  first position was held by the food industry, which was cost by the  protracted recession by losing its primacy.

According to statistics, the growth in economic activity in  January-April 2024 was mainly determined by the trade sector - with  an acceleration of the rate from 23.2% to 26.7% and the industrial  sector - with a sharp acceleration of the annual rate from 2.4% to  26.1% . The construction sector, from 16.8% to 13.7%, and the service  sector, from 22.2% to 3.9%, also maintained growth, with a clear  slowdown in pace. 

Against this background, the annual dynamics of the energy complex  slightly improved - with a 0.4% increase from a 3.3% decline. Data on  the agricultural sector is not provided in this statistical report,  since it is published only quarterly.

According to statistical data for January-April 2024, in absolute  value the leadership is held by the trade sector with a volume of  over 1.7 trillion. Drams ($4.3 billion). The second place in terms of  volume is occupied by the service sector - 1.01 trillion. drams ($2.5  billion), third - industrial sector - 953.3 billion ($2.4 billion),  and the fourth position, due to the lack of data on the agricultural  sector, is occupied by the construction sector - 107.8 billion drams  ($269.3 million). The volume of electricity generation in January-  April 2024 amounted to 3051.5 million kWh, of which in April alone -  668 million kWh.

However, in April 2024, compared to April 2023, economic activity  slowed down in growth to 10.4% (from 12.1% a year earlier), and in  April alone it turned towards a 0.1% decline from 10.4% in March. -th  growth (against growth slowdown in April 2023 from 10.9% to 3.4%).  Moreover, in April 2024, the industrial sector found itself in a  double-digit decline of 13.1%, after a March slowdown in growth from  18.9% to a stagnant 0.2%, while in April 2023 growth was recorded  with a slowdown in rates from 6% to 1.6%. Along with the industrial  sector, the energy sector (15.4%) and the service sector (2.8%) were  in decline in April, while the construction sector (15.8%) and the  trade sector (1.4%) showed growth with a strong slowdown.

On an annual basis (April 2024 to April 2023), all sectors showed an  upward trend, and even the energy complex managed to emerge from  recession into growth. In particular, the largest annual growth was  shown by the trade sector - by 27.2%, followed by the growth rate of  the construction sector - 17.8%, the industrial sector - 16.6%, the  energy complex - 7.2% and the service sector - 0.8 %. A year earlier,  in April 2023 by April 2022, the industrial sector and the energy  complex were in decline by 0.8% and 8%, respectively, and other  sectors showed higher growth: the trade sector - by 28.9%, the  service sector - by 20.4% , construction sector - by 19.3%.

Against this background, Armenia's foreign trade turnover in  January-April 2024 reached 5.5 trillion.  drams ($13.7 billion),  accelerating the already high annual growth rate to 2.4 times (from  99.4% in the same period in 2023). This is due to the acceleration of  high annual growth rates in both exports - from 2.1 times to 2.8  times, and imports - from 93.9% to 2.1 times, the absolute value of  which amounted to 2.4 trillion and 3.1 trillion drams ($5.99 billion  and $7.7 billion), respectively.

In April 2024, compared to April 2023, foreign trade turnover  accelerated in growth from 83.5% to 2.7 times, which was due to the  acceleration of annual growth of both exports - from 81.3% to 2.9  times, and imports - from 84 .7% to 2.6 times.

From 2023, the methodology for calculating the volumes of generated  electricity has changed in statistical reports; in particular, the  volumes of electricity generated by autonomous producers also began  to be taken into account. For the agricultural sector, data is  published only in quarterly and annual statistical reports.  (The  average calculated dram exchange rate was 400.16 dr/$1 in  January-April 2024).  

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