Wednesday, April 17 2024 22:08

ArmInfo.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has improved its forecast for Armenia's GDP for  2024 from the previous 5% to an updated 6% (versus actual 8.7% growth in 2023), with a slowdown to 5.2% in 2025. This is noted in the IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2024; Steady but Slow: Resilience amid  Divergenc."

According to IMF expectations, inflation in Armenia will increase to  3.1% in 2024 (from 2% in 2023) and will further will reach to 3.7% in  2025, thereby approaching the target 4%.  The unemployment rate in  Armenia, according to the IMF forecast, will reach to 13% in 2024  (from 12.5% in 2023), and - to 13.5% in 2025.  According to IMF  expectations, Armenia's current account deficit will increase to  2.8%of GDP in 2024 (from 1.9% in 2023), and will continue to grow to  3.6% of GDP in 2025

Recently, in its April forecast, the World Bank also improved the  forecast for GDP growth in Armenia for 2024 from the previous 4.7% to  an updated 5.5% (against the actual slowdown in growth in 2023 to  8.7% from 12.6% in 2022). The World Bank also improved its economic  growth forecast for 2025 - from the previous 4.5% to an updated 4.9%.  According to the World Bank's forecast, in the medium term, average  inflation will rise to the targeted 4%. According to the World Bank's  expectations, Armenia's current account deficit will worsen to 3.2%  of GDP in 2024 (from 2.3% in 2023), but will remain manageable at  3.4-3.5% in the medium term.

The forecasts of international rating agencies for Armenia's GDP  growth for 2024 are as follows: S&P Global Ratings expects the pace  to slow down to 6.2%, and Fitch Ratings - to 6%.  The Central Bank,   with the transition to a new system for developing monetary policy   (FPAS MARK II) from 2024, began to calculate the GDP forecast for   several scenarios and indicate the expected growth not at one   specific level, but in a range. In particular, according to the   forecast of the Central Bank of Armenia, GDP growth in 2024 will be   in the range of 5.3-6.4%.