Friday, February 16 2024 13:14
Marianna Mkrtchyan

Global economic growth to slow -EDB

Global economic growth to slow -EDB

ArmInfo. Global economic growth will slow, according to the Macroeconomic Outlook 2024-2026 by  the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB). 

The major central banks will soon complete their monetary tightening  cycle that has extended longer than anticipated. Inflation, albeit  subdued in developed countries, will remain elevated for a while,  driven by supply constraints, setting the stage for prolonged tight  monetary conditions. As a result, U.S. GDP growth is forecast to be  low at 1.0% in 2024, potentially dipping into a shallow recession in  early 2024. U.S.  economic growth will remain below 2% per year in  the medium term, while the Eurozone economy will grow by 0.9% in 2024  and by around 1.5% per year in 2025-2026. China's economic activity  will weaken in the medium term due to soft global demand and domestic  structural problems, and its GDP growth will decrease from 5.6% in  2023 to about 4% per year in 2024-2026.

Thanks to domestic sources of growth, the GDP of the EDB operating  region will increase by 3.4% in 2023. The economic outlook for the  region in 2023 has improved in line with growth estimates for all  countries. The economies of Russia and Belarus have adapted to the  new conditions and restored GDP to its pre-crisis levels in 3Q2023.  We expect GDP to grow by 3.9% in Belarus in 2023 and by 3.1% in  Russia.  We have raised the economic growth forecasts to 4.8% for  Kazakhstan, 8.3% for Armenia, 4.6% for Kyrgyzstan, and 8.2% for  Tajikistan.

In 2024, the region's economic growth will reach 2%, driven by the  Russian and Belarusian economies returning to their equilibrium after  rapid recovery in 2023. With domestic demand shrinking, Russia's  economy will grow by 1.5% in 2024, affecting GDP in most countries of  the region due to decreased exports from these countries and lower  remittances to them. We expect economic growth to slow to 5.7% in  Armenia, 2% in Belarus, and 7.3% in Tajikistan. Investment policy  will stimulate Kazakhstan's GDP growth, bringing it to 5.0%. An  increase in the output of base metals in Kyrgyzstan will raise GDP by  4.5%.

Inflation in the Bank's operating region will be about 5.8% in 2024,  down from 7.8% in 2023. It was 13.1% in 2022, but a tight monetary  policy adopted by central banks slowed it down considerably. However,  some countries in the region have experienced price pressure in the  second half of 2023 due to the overheating labour market and  large-scale economic stimuli. These pressures will ease in 2024,  encouraged by the central banks' policies to cool domestic demand,  but inflation will still remain above target. High interest rates  will cause consumer price growth in Russia to slow to 5.4% in 2024  from 7.9% in 2023. Inflation in Armenia will approach its target  range of 3.6%. Price growth will continue to slow down in Kazakhstan  to 7.1% in 2024 and in Kyrgyzstan to 7.8%. The inflation overhang in  Belarus caused by price regulation has paved the way for price growth  to accelerate to 8%. Tajikistan's inflation will accelerate to 6.6%  amid a spike in domestic demand.  

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     


News
IMF upgrades Armenia`s GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 5% to 6%,  expecting inflation at 3.1% and unemployment at 13%IMF upgrades Armenia`s GDP growth forecast for 2024 from 5% to 6%,  expecting inflation at 3.1% and unemployment at 13%
Armenia`s Deputy PM, Veolia Vice President discuss problems with  water supply to consumers Armenia`s Deputy PM, Veolia Vice President discuss problems with  water supply to consumers 
EEC Board decided to liberalize certain categories of precious  metals` import/exportEEC Board decided to liberalize certain categories of precious  metals` import/export
Earthquakes, drought could affect Armenia`s debt sustainability -  EFSDEarthquakes, drought could affect Armenia`s debt sustainability -  EFSD
Converse Bank starts initial placement of next AMD, USD bonds in  amount of AMD 5 billion, $10 millionConverse Bank starts initial placement of next AMD, USD bonds in  amount of AMD 5 billion, $10 million
USAID releases fact sheet following Joint EU-US-Armenia High Level  Meeting in Support of Armenia USAID releases fact sheet following Joint EU-US-Armenia High Level  Meeting in Support of Armenia 
Expert: Armenia has the potential to get high-quality and abundant  harvest of apricots this yearExpert: Armenia has the potential to get high-quality and abundant  harvest of apricots this year
EFSD presents assessment of potential impact of natural disasters on  debt sustainability of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and TajikistanEFSD presents assessment of potential impact of natural disasters on  debt sustainability of Armenia, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan
Armenia is considering appointing attache in Silicon ValleyArmenia is considering appointing attache in Silicon Valley
Astana proposes joint investment programmes in Yerevan Astana proposes joint investment programmes in Yerevan 
Armenia, Kazakhstan have unrealized economic potential - premier Armenia, Kazakhstan have unrealized economic potential - premier 
Armenia, EU discuss expansion of economic cooperation Armenia, EU discuss expansion of economic cooperation 
Transavia airline starts operating route Lyon-Yerevan-LyonTransavia airline starts operating route Lyon-Yerevan-Lyon
EAEU and its economic principles should not be mixed with political  ambitions - Nikol PashinyanEAEU and its economic principles should not be mixed with political  ambitions - Nikol Pashinyan
Armenia, Australia to strengthen cooperation in high-tech field Armenia, Australia to strengthen cooperation in high-tech field 
Leasing EXPO -2024 officially opened in YerevanLeasing EXPO -2024 officially opened in Yerevan
Araratbank to double leasing portfolio by end of 2024Araratbank to double leasing portfolio by end of 2024
Armenian, Kazakh passenger and cargo carriers to be exempted from  road and environmental taxes on reciprocal basis Armenian, Kazakh passenger and cargo carriers to be exempted from  road and environmental taxes on reciprocal basis 
Economy Ministry jointly with Armenal, develop schemes to diversify  sales markets for enterprise`s productsEconomy Ministry jointly with Armenal, develop schemes to diversify  sales markets for enterprise`s products
Info about IT specialists leaving Armenia en masse has nothing to do  with reality - premierInfo about IT specialists leaving Armenia en masse has nothing to do  with reality - premier
WB improves Armenia`s   economic growth forecast for 2024 from 4.7%  to 5.5% WB improves Armenia`s   economic growth forecast for 2024 from 4.7%  to 5.5% 
Government is ready to share risks with agricultural insurersGovernment is ready to share risks with agricultural insurers
EIB to issue loan under energy efficiency programme to Armenia EIB to issue loan under energy efficiency programme to Armenia 
Deadline for filing personal income declarations in Armenia may be  extendedDeadline for filing personal income declarations in Armenia may be  extended
ADB intends to expand its areas of activity in ArmeniaADB intends to expand its areas of activity in Armenia
ADB forecasts 5.7% economic growth for Armenia in 2024ADB forecasts 5.7% economic growth for Armenia in 2024
Conversebank to present its Converse Leasing product at annual  Leasing ExpoConversebank to present its Converse Leasing product at annual  Leasing Expo
By rebranding, INGO Armenia IC begins new stage of developmentBy rebranding, INGO Armenia IC begins new stage of development
Some countries refusal to service Russian Mir bank cards against  common interests - Elvira NabiullinaSome countries refusal to service Russian Mir bank cards against  common interests - Elvira Nabiullina
USAID to invest additional $33mln in Armenia`s economy USAID to invest additional $33mln in Armenia`s economy 
Idplus Bonuses in Idram&IDBank ApplicationIdplus Bonuses in Idram&IDBank Application
Deputy PM: we are ready for any assistance to contribute cargo  aviation establishmentDeputy PM: we are ready for any assistance to contribute cargo  aviation establishment
Mkhitar Hayrapetyan on TV broadcasting agreement with RF: If our  proposals are not taken into account, we do not rule out possibility  of terminating agreement unilaterallyMkhitar Hayrapetyan on TV broadcasting agreement with RF: If our  proposals are not taken into account, we do not rule out possibility  of terminating agreement unilaterally
Armenia, Iran discuss organization of joint production in various  branches of economy Armenia, Iran discuss organization of joint production in various  branches of economy 
ADB ready to fund northern section of Sisian-Kajaran highway of  North-South transport corridor  ADB ready to fund northern section of Sisian-Kajaran highway of  North-South transport corridor  
Armenia`s Ministry of High-Tech Industry developing sectoral strategy Armenia`s Ministry of High-Tech Industry developing sectoral strategy 
Armenia`s footwear exports to Russia 11 times up Armenia`s footwear exports to Russia 11 times up 
EDB sets course for digital future of transportation at joint EEC and  ESCAP eventEDB sets course for digital future of transportation at joint EEC and  ESCAP event
Team`s Next Generation Networ is already available in AshtarakTeam`s Next Generation Networ is already available in Ashtarak
Kazakhstan`s potential exports to Armenia total $350mln - minister Kazakhstan`s potential exports to Armenia total $350mln - minister 
Armenia`s economy to face crisis if Moscow severs economic ties with  Yerevan - ex-premier Armenia`s economy to face crisis if Moscow severs economic ties with  Yerevan - ex-premier 
Acquisition of Ameriabank by BOGG PLC int`l financial group completedAcquisition of Ameriabank by BOGG PLC int`l financial group completed
Armenian service sector generated revenue of $1.2 billion in first  two monthsArmenian service sector generated revenue of $1.2 billion in first  two months
EEC: EAEU common electricity market is at high level of readinessEEC: EAEU common electricity market is at high level of readiness
Armenia`s metallurgical industry increased production volumes by 37%  in first 2 monthsArmenia`s metallurgical industry increased production volumes by 37%  in first 2 months
Idram and IDBank participated in the signing ceremony of the Declaration of Women`s Empowerment PrinciplesIdram and IDBank participated in the signing ceremony of the Declaration of Women`s Empowerment Principles
US supports building of strong transport corridor from Turkiye  to  Central AsiaUS supports building of strong transport corridor from Turkiye  to  Central Asia
EFSD contributes to modernization of Armenia`s irrigation systemEFSD contributes to modernization of Armenia`s irrigation system
ADB to issue EUR 60.09mln loan to Armenia for urban development  programmes ADB to issue EUR 60.09mln loan to Armenia for urban development  programmes 
EIB to issue EUR 25mln loan to Armenia for 2nd phase of energy  efficiency programme in Yerevan EIB to issue EUR 25mln loan to Armenia for 2nd phase of energy  efficiency programme in Yerevan 
Armenia`s clothing exports to Russia 1.5 times up Armenia`s clothing exports to Russia 1.5 times up 
Armenia needs alternative if leaves EAEU - expert Armenia needs alternative if leaves EAEU - expert 
Diagnosis from Prime Minister: Armenia`s irrigation system is deadDiagnosis from Prime Minister: Armenia`s irrigation system is dead
CECC business mission to visit Armenia  CECC business mission to visit Armenia  
Armenia joins International Solar AllianceArmenia joins International Solar Alliance
Armenian NPP to be under maintenance repair Armenian NPP to be under maintenance repair 
Brett King: Banks should be ready to implement AIBrett King: Banks should be ready to implement AI
Expert: There is no alternative to digital transformationExpert: There is no alternative to digital transformation
Arman Barseghyan: technically, Ameriabank is a digital bank Arman Barseghyan: technically, Ameriabank is a digital bank 
1.2% y-o-y inflation in Armenia`s consumer market in March 2024 was  caused by drop in food prices 1.2% y-o-y inflation in Armenia`s consumer market in March 2024 was  caused by drop in food prices 
Read more


Exchange rates
18.04.2024
RUB4.190.00
USD394.07-1.03
EUR420.750.36
GBP491.72-0.42
CAD286.470.33
JPY25.52-0.03
CNY54.44-0.14
CHF433.660.15