Martin Galstyan: Armenia is in a good position in terms of high  economic growth and low inflation

ArmInfo. Armenia is in a good position in terms of high economic growth and low inflation, as stated by RA Central Bank Chairman Martin Galstyan during a November 4 press conference dedicated to the decision to once again keep the refinancing rate at 6.75%.

He noted that the recent significant increase in inflation, to 3.7%  per annum in September (with a target of 3%, +/- 1 percentage point),  was primarily due to supply-side factors. "As you know, central banks  are somewhat reluctant to respond to demand-side factors, as the  central bank's primary function is to regulate supply-side  inflation." When asked about the Ministry of Finance's forecast for  the GDP growth in 2025 at 7%, Galstyan responded that financial  market participants expect 5.2% growth (according to the Central Bank  of Armenia's September updated forecast for 2025, the GDP growth is  expected to be in the range of 5.8-5.7% - Ed.).

It should be noted that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its  October forecast improved its expectations for Armenia's GDP growth  in 2025 from the previous 4.5% to an updated 5%, with the rate  accelerating to 5.5% in 2026. By the end of 2025, according to the  IMF's forecast, inflation will remain at the target threshold (3%,  +/- 1 percentage point). The IMF attributes risks to this forecast  primarily to the uncertainty associated with ongoing global trade  tensions and a potential slowdown in economic growth among trading  partners, as well as regional geopolitical risks. In its April  forecast, the World Bank lowered its GDP growth expectations for  Armenia in 2025 from the previous 5% to an updated 4%, with the rate  accelerating to 4.2% in 2026.

According to the RA Statistics Committee, Armenia's GDP growth, after  accelerating in 2022 from 5.8% to 12.6%, began to slow in 2023 to  8.3% and then to 5.9% in 2024, amounting to 10.2 trillion drams  (approximately $26 billion) in absolute terms. The GDP deflator index  also began to decline, after increasing from 106.9% to 108% in 2022,  to 103.1% in 2023 and to 101.4% in 2024. According to statistical  data for January-September 2025, economic activity growth in Armenia  amounted to 7.6% y/y (compared to 8.7% a year ago), with the  construction sector, services, and the agricultural sector acting as  growth drivers, while the industrial sector was in decline and a  strong slowdown in growth was noted in the trade sector.